Are we seeing more autism – or more need for support?
Blog by Maria Kondratchik, Senior Psychological Therapist (Child and Adolescent Psychotherapist, BACP registered), 28 April 2026
Over the past two decades, the number of children diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) has risen sharply. For many families, this shift has been helpful. A diagnosis can bring relief, offer an explanation for a child’s difficulties, and open access to support. It can also reduce the sense of confusion or self-blame that so often accompanies parenting a child who struggles.
At the same time, recent research invites us to look more closely at what this increase might actually represent.
A large longitudinal study by Sebastian Lundström and colleagues, following more than 27,000 children in Sweden, explored not only the presence of autistic traits, but how much these traits were experienced as impairing over time. What they found is both subtle and important. At similar levels of autistic traits, parents in more recent years reported significantly greater levels of difficulty and distress than parents did 15 to 20 years earlier. At clinically significant levels, perceived impairment increased by around 23%, and at milder levels the increase was even more pronounced.
In other words, the behaviours themselves may not have changed as much as we might assume. What appears to have shifted is the way those behaviours are experienced, understood, and responded to.
There are several possible reasons for this. The world children are growing up in has become more complex and demanding. Schools increasingly expect independence, flexibility, and sophisticated social communication. Children who find these areas difficult may struggle more visibly than they would have in the past. At the same time, awareness of autism has grown. Children who might once have been described as shy, sensitive, or simply “different” are now more likely to be recognised as needing support.
Another important factor is the role of diagnosis itself. In many systems, access to help depends on having a recognised diagnosis. This can place families and professionals in a position where seeking a diagnosis becomes not just a matter of understanding, but also a necessary step in securing support. Over time, this can contribute to a widening of diagnostic boundaries.
What this research highlights is not that autism is “overdiagnosed” in a simplistic sense, but that the boundary between difference and disorder is becoming more fluid. A diagnosis, while often useful, does not fully capture how a child experiences the world. Two children may show similar traits, yet one may feel relatively secure and able to cope, while another may feel overwhelmed, anxious, or disconnected.
For parents, this can be both challenging and freeing. It suggests that while a diagnosis can be an important starting point, it is not the whole story.
What matters most is understanding how a child experiences relationships, what situations feel difficult or confusing, how they manage strong feelings, and what helps them feel safe and supported.
Seen in this way, the increase in autism diagnoses reflects not only changes in children, but also changes in the environments they live in and the ways we, as adults, interpret and respond to their needs. The most helpful question may not simply be whether a child meets criteria for autism, but what kind of support will allow them to feel more secure, more understood, and more able to engage with the world around them.
Reference
Lundström, S., Taylor, M. J., Larsson, H., et al. (2022). Perceived child impairment and the ‘autism epidemic’. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcpp.13497
